Michael Beckley on The End of China’s Rise & the Future of Global Order | WORLD KNOWLEDGE FORUM 2024

The speaker discusses the shift from a post-Cold War globalized order to one of intense security competition, highlighting the challenges posed by China's economic slowdown and potential reactions to external pressures.

Examining the economic challenges facing China including slowing GDP growth, negative productivity growth, high debt levels, and indicators suggesting internal economic issues like negative productivity growth and youth unemployment.

Exploring China's economic rise, development strategies, demographic changes, and the impact of becoming self-sufficient in key resources which drove growth but are now turning into liabilities.

Discussing China's evolving geopolitical relationships, including its economic dependencies, security risks, and growing tensions with the United States and other countries, leading to a potential shift from economic partner to geopolitical threat.

Drawing parallels between China's current situation and historical peaking powers like the United States and Japan, highlighting aggressive expansions and conflicts that followed rapid growth periods.

Examining authoritarian trends in China, including centralized power, repression, surveillance, military advancements, and challenges in Taiwan and the South China Sea region.

Predicting potential conflicts between China and the United States due to escalating tensions, contrasting strategic interests, and the historical dynamics of great power rivalries.

Discussing potential future scenarios for China, including economic decline, geopolitical shifts, and the possibility of a Cold War era, emphasizing the need to navigate challenges for a stable global environment.